WASHINGTON (TND) — The conviction of former President Donald Trump on 34 felonies in his New York hush money case swiftly sparked intense divisions over the justice system and added fuel to what was already an intense election featuring two of the most unpopular presidents in American history.
Thursday’s verdict added to the historic and unprecedented nature of Trump’s various legal troubles, making him the first American president to be convicted of a crime. The Manhattan case is also on track to be the only one that reaches a conclusion prior to the November election as his cases in Washington, Georgia and Florida are all under delays amid legal disputes between Trump’s defense team and prosecutors.
Trump has been adamant that the trial was rigged against him and that the judge and district attorney working on the case had political motives to convict him of a crime. He has vowed to appeal the verdict.
“Nov. 5 is going to be the most important day in the history of our country,” Trump said Friday morning.
The situation puts America and its electorate in completely unchartered waters in the midst of an election year that is coming on the heels of a bitter 2020 election that came as the coronavirus pandemic uprooted society, mass and sometimes chaotic protests broke out over the murder of George Floyd and the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol.
“How this affects the outcome of the election is impossible to say just because this is unprecedented, but I would say that we have quite a bit of precedent for partisans retreating to their corners and believing whatever fits the narrative of their party better,” said Chris Devine, an associate professor of political science at the University of Dayton.
Many Republicans in Congress have condemned the verdict, echoing Trump’s claims that the trial was a sham, he faced a biased judge and that the district attorney overseeing the prosecution had it out for him. Various GOP lawmakers attended Trump’s trial over the last several weeks, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, often including a stop by the crowd of cameras and reporters to criticize the proceedings.
The Republican National Committee described the verdict as a “rigged witch-hunt.”
“Today’s verdict, handed down by a partisan and biased judge, is an indictment on the Democrats’ campaign to weaponize the judicial system to attack President Trump. The real verdict will take place on November 5 when Americans vote for a president they trust to bring down prices, secure the southern border, restore America’s leadership around the world and Make America Great Again,” RNC chairman Michael Watley said in a statement.
There was an immediate noticeable impact with Republican organizations and Trump’s campaign raising significant sums in the immediate hours after the announcement of the conviction. Trump’s campaign announced a $35 million fundraising haul after the guilty verdict.
The White House has stayed away from commenting on Trump’s trial, but his campaign has recently started to embrace it as they try to draw a stark contrast between Trump and President Joe Biden. The president’s reelection campaign has also sent out fundraising appeals referencing the conviction.
“Donald Trump has always mistakenly believed he would never face consequences for breaking the law for his own personal gain,” the campaign said in a statement. “But today’s verdict does not change the fact that the American people face a simple reality. There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the ballot box. Convicted felon or not, Trump will be the Republican nominee for president.”
Biden weighed in on the conviction for the first time on Friday and is more likely to lean into it as the campaign wears on and he is on a debate stage with Trump next month.
"That's how the American justice system works, and it's reckless, it's dangerous, and it's irresponsible for anyone to say this was rigged just because they don't like the verdict," he said.
One of the biggest questions stemming from the conviction is whether it will affect voting choices in November, especially among independent voters who are still undecided about who to support. Independents were a key part of Biden’s winning coalition in 2020, but he is facing poor approval ratings for his presidency and handling of the economy and inflation, which has raised questions about whether he would be able to receive their support again.
There is limited polling data in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s conviction about how it will change attitudes toward the former president, and even still it is highly uncertain how people will react to a totally unprecedented event. A Marist poll released Thursday morning found that 67% of voters said a conviction wouldn’t make a difference for them in November, while 76% said they would not vote differently if Trump was found not guilty.
Prior to the verdict being announced, polls found that Trump would likely lose at least some support if he were to be convicted of a felony. An ABC News-Ipsos survey from earlier this month found 16% of Trump supporters would reconsider their support and 4% would withdraw it if he were to be convicted of a felony.
But polls have also found wide swaths of the American public have not been paying attention to the trial and those that have are divided on whether he received fair treatment, both of which raise questions about how big the impact a conviction will be on his support by Nov. 5.
Regardless, even a slight tilt back toward Biden could flip the results of the election. The Electoral College is essentially certain to be decided by tens of thousands of voters spread across a handful of swing states, meaning it only takes small percentages of voters to change their mind to flip the results.
“If it's going to change the election, it's going to be by having an effect on folks who are in the middle. We're talking about a pretty small slice of the electorate — about 10% — that are true independents that don't lean towards either party,” Devine said. "They may be conflicted now, where perhaps a lot of them are not thrilled to vote for Joe Biden and not happy with his administration, but they may not see Trump as a great alternative.
"They may not already have seen him as an acceptable alternative but perhaps he was still good enough to choose over Biden. This could be the kind of thing that makes those folks say, ‘Trump is just not acceptable to me.’”
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